Over-Positivism: High on the Hype Cycle

The human race thrives on progress. We’re wired to be excited by the shiny and new, the potential for a brighter future fueled by technological marvels. But this inherent optimism has often led us down a path of over-positivity. A state where we get so “hyped” about new ideas, tech and concepts that we forgo critical thinking and due diligence. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the way we react to emerging technologies, often getting swept away by the hype cycle before fully considering the potential downsides.

History is littered with examples of this. Remember the promise of coal-powered rockets? Most likely not since that fad has passed well before most of us even was alive, but still.

In the early 20th century, the idea of using readily available coal as fuel for space exploration seemed ingenious. After all, it was abundant and powerful, an already powered everything new technology we could come to think of. So why not rockets?

The reality was far less glamorous. Coal combustion is incredibly dirty, producing massive amounts of pollution that would render any rocket launch environmentally disastrous. And while powerful and well capable to transport both us and our goods around the world and back it lacked that extra something to put us into orbit. Thankfully, this idea never gained serious traction, but it serves as a cautionary tale.

Another historical example is that of the atom. A new and powerful fuel that once harness could power everything and be used literally everywhere. Leading us to strange assumptions and outlandish ideas like the concept of nuclear bombs in farming.

In the post-war optimism of the 1950s, several engineers and scientists entertained the idea of using nuclear explosions to create new farmland or stimulate plant growth. The supposed benefits were vast and ranged from increased agricultural yields and easier land clearing. Thankfully, the inherent dangers of nuclear radiation and the potential for widespread contamination quickly squashed this dangerous proposition.

Yet, the allure of “atomic everything” did not stop there. Innovations and wild pipedreams like nuclear-powered cars to food irradiation continued and the potential applications seemed endless.

Today it’s not the atom that has our collective attention. We live in the age of AI and everything that can be integrated and fused to the machines tends to be suggested as the next big thing. I’m an advocate for change and a lover of AI as a concept but we must take the necessary steps not to get over hyper and caught up in a destructive cycle.

So, why do we fall prey to these “hype cycles”? Well, there is several good reasons that all tends to work together for a perfect storm.

Firstly, we are naturally drawn to the new and untested and easily seduced by novelty. The promise of a technological revolution is intoxicating, its promises are clouding our judgment and overshadowing all potential problems. Since we are not on this earth forever the blink of an eye that we do exists seems to be pinnacle of it all. We are either in the last days of life as we know it or the budding first of a coming revolution. This is just human nature.

Secondly, we have the power of narrative. Tech companies and media outlets often paint a rosy picture of emerging technologies, focusing on the potential benefits while downplaying the risks. This is what we want to here, this is the message that sells newspapers and accompanying add space. This narrative can be incredibly persuasive, especially for those without a deep understanding of the underlying science or engineering. AI, the Atom and steam powered is the fuel for our imaginations and since there promises are often endless, they can be adapted to everything we know.

Lastly, we have the ever-powerful concept of FOMO, the fear of missing out. In a world obsessed with progress, the pressure to embrace the latest advancements can be immense. We don’t want to be left behind, leading us to jump on the bandwagon without thorough evaluation. This is further accelerated by our binary nature. We often go all in or stay clear out of any subject. You either love AI and see it as the savior for everything and everyone or you tend to believe that it is all smoke and mirrors. There are few pragmatists out there and the hype forces us to pick a side.

So, how do we avoid getting swept away by the hype and taken for a ride or getting too caught up? In sort we need adopt a more critical and balanced perspective.

Starting with demand transparency. We need to seek out information from credible sources that discuss both the potential benefits and drawbacks of new technologies. We all need a healthy dose of skepticism, so we don’t accept everything we hear at face value.

We should strive be open and allow for discussion. We don’t need to pick one option or the other and should never go all in on any idea. We need to be both positive and strive for change as well as trying to not get blinded by the shiny and new and think about the long-term.

Our binary nature is a hindrance but ultimately, a balanced approach is key.

Technological innovation is essential for progress, but it should be driven by critical thinking and a deep understanding of the potential consequences. By embracing a healthy skepticism and trying to be tech pragmatic, we can ensure that technological advancements truly benefit humanity and our planet.

Let’s move beyond the over-positivity of the hype cycle and foster innovation built on a foundation of reason and responsibility. And finally give up dreaming about irradiated tomato’s that glow in the dark.